
In recent years, external control arms (ECAs) are being increasingly used in clinical research, particularly in cases where randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are not feasible or appropriate. Real-world data (RWD) from patient registries, electronic health records (EHRs), and other observational sources are the basis of ECAs, thus offering critical reference points for single-arm studies.(1, 2) However, they can significantly impact the validity of ECAs due to the risk of unmeasured confounding and systematic biases.(3) ECAs are not randomized like RCTs, which makes them fundamentally susceptible to bias owing to the differences in patient characteristics, treatment practices, and methods of data collection.(4) To address this challenge, quantitative bias analysis (QBA) can be a beneficial methodological tool.(5)
QBA enables researchers to systematically model and calculate the possible impact of unmeasured confounding on treatment effect estimates. Instead of solely depending on conventional sensitivity analyses or assuming that statistical adjustments for measured variables are adequate, QBA offers a systematic approach to estimate how much an unobserved confounder would require to control both treatment and outcome to justify an observed treatment effect. This quantitative perspective adds refinement and transparency to studies involving ECA, particularly in cases where the severity and direction of potential bias is assessed or bounded. The increasing realization of QBA’s applicability has persuaded its implementation in regulatory and health technology assessment (HTA) scenarios, where decision-makers need robust, reliable evidence for decisions on policy and reimbursement.(5, 6)
The Q-BASEL study (Quantitative Bias Analysis in External Control Arms for Standardization and Evidence Level) is a crucial milestone in depicting the utility of QBA in practice. This study comprehensively employed QBA techniques across several real-world ECA cases to estimate the possible impact of unmeasured confounding on the observed treatment effects. By incorporating probabilistic bias analysis and deterministic sensitivity states, the researchers were able to measure the strength of the findings from these ECAs. The results of the Q-BASEL study emphasized that even moderate confounding could drastically change the understanding of treatment benefit, while also exhibiting robustness of observed treatment effect under reasonable bias assumptions in several cases. This strengthened the value of QBA as both a diagnostic method and a reliability enhancer for ECA-based evidence.(6)
Notably, the Q-BASEL study encourages a mindset shift, from trying to remove all bias to explicitly measuring it and putting its effect into perspective. Embracing the inherent uncertainty of RWD empowers researchers and reviewers to make more informed decisions. The study also highlights the need for transparency in assumptions, appropriate documentation of parameter scales, and stakeholder communication, all of which are vital for QBA to significantly help in decision-making. Additionally, its impact extends beyond oncology and rare diseases, two fields with frequent adoption of ECAs, to larger treatment landscapes with rising RWD integration.(6)
With increasing use of ECAs in regulatory and HTA decisions, QBA offers a transparent, scientific method to evaluate whether treatment effect estimates may be affected by bias rather than depicting a real clinical benefit. The Q-BASEL study shows how this can be assessed with practical and reproducible approaches. With rising expectations for transparency and methodological robustness, integrating QBA into RWE studies can potentially become standard practice.
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References
- Sosinsky AZ, Parzynski CS, Casso D. The Role of External Control Arms in Drug Development and Considerations for Success. ISPOR – Value & Outcomes Spotlight. 2024; 10(4).
- Mishra-Kalyani PS, Amiri Kordestani L, Rivera DR, et al. External control arms in oncology: current use and future directions. Ann Oncol. 2022; 33(4):376-383.
- Quantifying Bias in Real-World Studies: A New Hope for RWD Acceptance or Are HTAers Gonna Hate? ISPOR. 2022. [Accessed online on 10th July 2025]. Available at: https://www.ispor.org/docs/default-source/euro2022/ispor-eu-2022—qbasel-symposium—v1.pdf?sfvrsn=d14165ea_0
- Khachatryan A, Read SH, Madison T. External control arms for rare diseases: building a body of supporting evidence. J Pharmacokinet Pharmacodyn. 2023; 50:501-506.
- Thorlund K, Duffield S, Popat S, et al. Quantitative bias analysis for external control arms using real-world data in clinical trials: a primer for clinical researchers. J Comp Eff Res. 2024; 13(3):e230147.
- Gupta A, Hsu G, Kent S, et al. Quantitative Bias Analysis for Single-Arm Trials With External Control Arms. JAMA Netw Open. 2025; 8(3):e252152.










Both electronic health records (EHRs) and patient registries store and use patient-related clinical information. However, they are conceptualized for different purposes. Both are a significant source of real-world evidence (RWE) as they gather a considerable amount of clinical information collected in the real-world setting.
Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are the mainstay of clinical research; it is estimated that about 18,000 RCTs are published each year. However, traditional RCTs usually take a long time to complete, are expensive, and the results are challenging to generalize to the real-world since they are derived under ideal conditions with strict inclusion and exclusion criteria. This brings in an additional layer of complexity for decision-making by the healthcare stakeholders and reimbursement authorities. With an intention to resolve this challenge, fuelled by the increasing global shift towards personalized medicine and value-based payment models, new methods for generating efficacy and safety evidence of interventions in real-world settings are continuously sought after.[1,2]
Evidence from randomized clinical trials (RCTs) continues to be the standard reference point for treatment efficacy across the world. However, RCTs enrol patients based on strict inclusion and exclusion criteria, and hence RCT evidence is often not generalizable and inadequate for contributing to the day-to-day clinical practice decisions. Consequently, researchers are more interested in using real-world data (RWD) to guide healthcare decisions.(1) Analysis of RWD that enables risk vs. benefit assessment while also providing data on the utility of medical intervention is called the real-world evidence (RWE).(2)
Concerns about the consistency of the post-marketing surveillance (PMS) for safety of medical devices is well known across the world. Only around 13% of post-marketing surveillance (PMS) clinical studies are completed on medical devices.[1] This is because new products or line extensions are launched frequently, even before full clinical trials of the parent device are conducted. This forces the manufacturers to reconsider whether a clinical study is worth funding, especially if the study timeline may result in publications reporting results on a previous generation’s technology. Furthermore, demonstration of the effectiveness of a device in clinical trials is challenging since the outcomes depend highly upon the clinician’s training and healthcare settings. In addition to this, continual and rapid changes in device design, and challenges pertaining to the use of placebo and blinding techniques, contribute to the complexity in conducting medical device trials.[2]
With all stakeholders increasingly realising the value real-world evidence (RWE) studies can bring into the healthcare delivery, newer applications of RWE are being discovered with each passing day. RWE has the potential to tremendously enhance the speed of patient access to new drugs. With this background, it is absolutely essential that the quality of RWE and the real-world data (RWD) that is used to generate RWE, are of high quality. To ensure quality RWD, it is also essential to bring about transparency into the RWD collection process. Unfortunately, this is easier said than done! However, various steps have been devised to improve transparency of RWD.[1] Two most prominent ones of these are pre-registration of RWE study protocol, and tokenization.